The college bowl season is upon us, with 28 games over the next three weeks to handicap, bet and win. Handicapping the college bowls is very different from handicapping the regular season. There is significantly more public money bet on bowl games, which gives sharp players an edge, year in and year out. In the essay below, I've outlined many of the key factors that I consider when looking at bowl games, factors that have helped me produce a consistent profit during bowl season for the last half decade. For information about the Whocovers.com bowl package, visit the website or call the office at the number in my tag at the end of this column.
Motivation is the key factor for any bowl game. Overall talent and team speed don't mean a thing when the players don't give a hoot about being there. That's why underdogs generally have such a strong record against the spread in the earlier bowl games. The favorites are there because they had disappointing seasons, and really don't care much for spending a good part of the holiday season in places like Detroit, Seattle, Nashville and Shreveport.
Look for the areas of team strength that are not likely to be affected by a long layoff. Remember, most teams will have been off the field for a month or more by kickoff time of their bowl games. In particular, teams that run the ball well are generally good bets in bowl games. Run blocking is not something that suffers dramatically during a layoff, nor do the good running backs suffer from a month of rest. Teams that outrush their opponents cover the spread better than 75% of the time in December and January.
Bet the coach. Some coaches seem to do well in bowl games almost every year, while other coaches treat bowl games like a reward for their squads, with plenty of time devoted to extra curricular activities, and not that much focus on the game itself. Bob Pruett of Marshall is 4-0 straight up and against the spread in the Thundering Herd's last four bowl appearances, winning straight up as an underdog three times. Meanwhile, Mike Leach of Texas Tech has lost straight up as a favorite in each of his two bowl games with the Red Raiders. These are not meaningless trends, or statistical aberrations. Rather, they are a statement about how a particular coach views the bowl process for his team.
Look for motivated and talented quarterbacks. Most QB's are team leaders, and the rest of the club will follow their example.
Defense means more than offense. The dominant defensive clubs are strong plays in bowl games almost every year. They create turnovers and hold leads, exactly what you want from the teams you have bet on. Teams that fall behind in bowl games tend to get frustrated easier than they do in the regular season, one of the reasons why bowl season produces more than its fair share of blowouts.
Look for teams that are searching for respect. When one club gets all they hype and publicity, and the other is virtually ignored by the media, or widely regarded as 'lucky to be there', the over-hyped team often comes in overconfident, while the under-hyped squad is usually more motivated. Pay particular attention to this in the later bowl games, when the media glare really heats up.
We split our two print selections last week, as the Steelers dominated the Panthers both on the scoreboard and in the box score, but the Browns were unable to hold a 16-0 halftime lead or punch the ball in from a 1st and goal in the closing seconds of the game, losing by five to the Colts. Here are a couple of games that look very juicy for the bettor as this is written, early in the week.
Chargers @ Chiefs
San Diego has lost two in a row and five out of seven to put their playoff hopes in severe jeopardy without a win here. Marty Schottenheimer's club was able to rally late to beat the Chiefs by a single point in the first meeting between these two clubs, overcoming five turnovers to do so. KC gave everything they had in a 'must win' game at Denver this past Sunday, falling just short of a miraculous comeback. In that game, Dick Vermeil's club was devastated by injuries, losing multiple players on both sides of the ball. While the injury status of key players like Priest Holmes is not determined as of press time, the cumulative results of the injuries and the effective end of their playoff chase could easily leave Kansas City somewhat flat here. All their defensive weaknesses were exposed again last week, and the Chargers will not be flat as a pancake, like the Chiefs previous two opponents, the Cardinals and Rams, were. Look for LaDanian Tomlinson to have a big day against the Chiefs depleted defense, and look for the Chargers to be the more motivated team in this spot. We can trust Schottenheimer's team in this spot, because he's shown the ability to get his team to bounce back from tough losses both in San Diego and in previous coaching stints at Cleveland, KC and Washington. All in all, a very good situation for a team likely to be a short underdog.
Take the Chargers.
Rams @ Seahawks
St Louis has been nothing short of awful on the road all season long. A late December game, on the road, on a grass field, in the cold of Seattle, is not an ideal spot for a club that just went 0-3 straight up and against the spread on their recent three game road swing. The Rams are now 1-6 SU and ATS away from home this season, their only win coming against lowly Arizona, a team they barely beat at home this past Sunday night. Teams with Super Bowl aspirations that are out of playoff contention have a strong tendency to lay down in their final few ballgames - it's not about giving 100% anymore for the Rams. All the dropped passes in the Sunday night game vs. Arizona were no accident - this team has no intensity or enthusiasm on either side of the football right now. Clearly, the Rams, as a team, just want this dismal season to be over. Meanwhile, a 'dead' team like the Seahawks has shown real life in recent weeks, winning in a gutsy effort at Atlanta in OT this past Sunday, and fighting back from deficits when they could have quit in each of the two games before that. Matt Hasselbeck is growing into his starting role, and WR's Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson are fast becoming stars, along with RB Shaun Alexander, making this a potent offense. The Seahawks can't stop the run, but with Marshall Faulk banged up, the Rams are no longer a good running team. Look for Seattle to win this one by at least a TD.
Take the Seahawks
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| Ted Sevransky |
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Ted Sevransky is the chief handicapper at Whocovers.com, a site
renowned for detailed analysis of every single game on the board
each week for both the NFL and college football. Ted has enjoyed
enormous documented success as a professional bettor over the
course of the past half decade since he moved to Las Vegas to bet for
a living. You can visit Ted at www.Whocovers.com or call his office
at 1-877-498-1474 to speak with him.
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