NFL Record: Best Bets 3-4, Regular Picks 11-6 (Updated Nov 6)

Most weeks we provide our NFL best bet of the week and an additional two to three picks that we believe offer some betting value. Last season our top play crushed the book with an incredible 15 point spread covers from 21 selections. Good for a 71.4 winning percent. While it will be difficult to improve on that record, we'll do our best to help our readers in their quest of a profitable football handicapping season.

Arizona QB Kurt Warner committed six turnovers in a 34-23 loss to Carolina last week. Chicago played an enhanced scrimmage in a 30-6 blowout win over hapless Cleveland.

Despite his problems last week, Warner faces a good spot here. Chicago's pass defense has been suspect for most of the season and look for Warner to throw early and often. WR Anquan Boldin (check status) isn't expected to play but Warner still has lots of targets to throw to. The Cardinals will also run the ball more in this game as they should face a defense more concerned with the pass. Rookie RB Chris 'Beanie' Wells is slowly getting more carries and he's averaging more than four yards per carry. Arizona's pass protection has had some problems at times and they will need to protect the outside as the Bears pass rush is most dangerous on the outside.

Chicago's offense has struggled most of the year, last week notwithstanding. Arizona ranked 1st in run defense before getting run over by the Panthers last week. The Bears' running game isn't like Carolina's and we don't feel the front seven will have problems containing RB Matt Forte (3.5 yards per carry). QB Jay Cutler has been under siege for most of 2009 and has already thrown 11 picks. Most of the Bears' offensive woes can be dumped in the lap of the O-line, a unit that has played poorly for most of the year. Arizona has gotten good pressure for most of the season and they will definitely force Cutler into quick throws.

Arizona has played well on the road this year (3-0 SU underdog wins) and we like them this week. We feel Warner will rebound from a terrible outing and will make plays against a defense not equipped to stop the pass for a whole game. Chicago has had problems offensively all year and we like the Cardinals defense to regain some of the edge they lost last week. They will use multiple looks up front and should be able to confuse the O-line. WR Larry Fitzgerald may see double teams but that will leave the other receivers in single coverage, a situation Warner should exploit.

Additional Pro Football Picks
Other games selections that we like this week are listed below.

• Houston +9
• Green Bay/TB Under 43.5
• Tennessee +4.5