NFL Record: Best Bets 3-3, Regular Picks 11-4 (Updated Oct 28)

Most weeks we provide our NFL best bet of the week and an additional two to three picks that we believe offer some betting value. Last season our top play crushed the book with an incredible 15 point spread covers from 21 selections. Good for a 71.4 winning percent. While it will be difficult to improve on that record, we'll do our best to help our readers in their quest of a profitable football handicapping season.

New Orleans took control of the NFC with a 48-27 pasting of the Giants last week. Miami had their bye last week but won their two previous games.

Saints' QB Drew Brees got back on track last week after two mediocre performances. Miami's defense has been very stingy vs. the run this season but they have had some problems vs. the pass. However, they do have a good pass rush and look for them to attack Brees on most passing downs. Brees has been sacked only five times this season but was ineffective when pressured by the Jets (another 3-4 defense) three weeks ago. New Orleans is rotating three backs and tends to go with the one with the hot hand. That will be difficult here against a big front seven. OLB Jason Taylor will also be a threat as starting LT Jammal Brown is out for the season. LT Jermon Bushrod will have his hands full and the Saints may need to keep another receiver in to give him help.

Miami is averaging 177 yards-per-game on the ground and look for that to be their focus in this contest. RBs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are averaging 4.9 yards-per-carry and this will be the Saints first look at the Wildcat offense. The Dolphins also lead the league in 3rd-down conversions and their ability to sustain drives will keep the Saints' offense on the bench. New QB Chad Henne has been a revelation and the team has scored 38 and 31 points with him under center. He has a big arm and that puts speedy WR Ted Ginn in play. New Orleans' secondary is improved with FS Darren Sharper but Ginn's deep speed could hurt them. New Orleans won't be able to stack the line as Miami now has a QB that can burn single coverage.

Miami is 2-1 SU at home this season with their only loss coming at the hands of the unbeaten Colts. This could be a letdown spot for the Saints after their huge NFC win over New York last week. The Dolphins have had an extra week to prepare and we feel their defense can do enough against Brees to keep him from exploiting them throughout the game. Look for a close game and a home cover.

Additional Pro Football Picks
Other games selections that we like this week are listed below.

• Dallas -4
• Arizona +7
• Green Bay/Cleveland Under 41.5