NFL Record: Best Bets 7-6-1, Regular Picks 18-16-1 (Updated Dec 31)

Most weeks we provide our NFL best bet of the week and an additional two to three picks that we believe offer some betting value. Last season our top play crushed the book with an incredible 15 point spread covers from 21 selections. Good for a 71.4 winning percent. While it will be difficult to improve on that record, we'll do our best to help our readers in their quest of a profitable football handicapping season.

Atlanta was dominant in a 31-3 shellacking of Buffalo last Sunday. Tampa Bay pulled a shocker with a 20-17 OT win at New Orleans.

The Falcons should be successful on the ground this week even without RB Michael Turner. RBs Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling are both capable of finding holes against a defense that surrenders 156 yards-per-game on the ground. If they are can gain positive yardage early, that will set up QB Matt Ryan to use play-action, an area he is very good at. WR Roddy White has topped 1,000 yards for three-straight seasons and look for him to give the Bucs' secondary trouble. TE Tony Gonzalez (check status) may not play in this game and Ryan will have to find other targets in the red zone. The Bucs have mustered only 27 sacks this season, so Ryan should have time to throw. He was knocked out of the earlier meeting with a turf toe injury and will want to play well in this contest.

The Buccaneers have won two-straight contests by running the ball effectively. RBs Carnell Williams and Earnest Graham will get plenty of action but the Falcons are no slouch in run defense (111 yards per game) and they have allowed only one RB to gain 100 yards on the ground this year. They have held five of their last six opponents to under 100 yards on the ground and expect them to play the run hard. QB Josh Freeman has been turnover-prone in his first season and has thrown 16 picks to only nine TD passes. He has also fumbled 10 times losing two. Tampa Bay is not a good passing team and TE Kellen Winslow II has almost twice as many catches as any other receiver.

Atlanta has been in the NFL since 1966 yet has never had back-to-back winning seasons. That sorry statistic is not lost on the current group of Falcons and they eagerly want to erase that blot on the organization. The Falcons have an advantage at most positions on the field, especially at QB and that is what we feel will be the difference here. Ryan isn't nearly as mistake-prone as Freeman

Additional Pro Football Picks

• Detroit +3
• Washington +4
• Cleveland -1