NFL Record: Best Bets 6-5, Regular Picks 16-10 (Updated Dec 12)

Most weeks we provide our NFL best bet of the week and an additional two to three picks that we believe offer some betting value. Last season our top play crushed the book with an incredible 15 point spread covers from 21 selections. Good for a 71.4 winning percent. While it will be difficult to improve on that record, we'll do our best to help our readers in their quest of a profitable football handicapping season.

Buffalo lost their fourth game in the last five with a 19-13 loss to the Jets last Thursday. Kansas City was blown out for the second-straight week, falling 44-13 to Denver on Sunday.

The Bills passing game has picked up a bit since QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has taken over. He faces a defense here that allows 250 yards-per-game through the air, generates little pass rush (17 sacks) and has picked off only eight passes. The Chiefs have allowed 87 combined points in their last two games as this young defense continues to experience growing pains. Look for WRs Terrell Owens and Lee Evans to be factors in this game, unlike most contests this year. The running game for Buffalo hasn't really gotten off the ground in 2009 but is better when backup RB Fred Jackson is toting the mail. Fitzpatrick can be erratic with his passes, so the ground game has to be effective for the passing game to click.

Kansas City's offense has scored 21 points or less in all but two games this season as QB Matt Cassel hasn't been able to duplicate the magic he had with New England in 2008. They convert less than 25% of their 3rd downs as Cassel hasn't been able to develop the needed chemistry with his receivers. Dropped passes are also a concern. The Bills' pass rush has been much better this year and they face an offense that has surrendered 40 sacks this season. Buffalo's run defense has been abysmal this year (172 yards allowed per game) but the Chiefs haven't been able to establish any consistency on the ground. RB Jamaal Charles has blazing speed but doesn't hit the hole hard.

It's rare to see the Bills as a road favorite but this is a good spot for them this week. They defeated Kansas City 54-31 at KC last season as the passing game led the way. Owens and Evans were locked down by the Jets last week but we feel they will make a big impact in this contest. The Chiefs used to be money at home but are just 4-18 SU at home since the start of the 2007 season. It may not be pretty but we like the Bills' offense to be able to pass their way to victory in this contest and for the defense to harass Cassel (who was benched last week) into mistakes.

Additional Pro Football Picks

• Denver +7
• Dallas -3
• Arizona -3.5