NFL Record: Best Bets 6-4, Regular Picks 16-10 (Updated Dec 2)

Most weeks we provide our NFL best bet of the week and an additional two to three picks that we believe offer some betting value. Last season our top play crushed the book with an incredible 15 point spread covers from 21 selections. Good for a 71.4 winning percent. While it will be difficult to improve on that record, we'll do our best to help our readers in their quest of a profitable football handicapping season.

New England was trounced by New Orleans on Monday night 38-17. Miami was overwhelmed in the 4th quarter in Buffalo last Sunday and lost 31-14.

The Patriots rolled up 432 total yards of offense in the first meeting (a 27-17 win) and they should have a lot of success again. QB Tom Brady will be facing a pair of rookie CBs and expect WRs Wes Welker and Randy Moss to have big games. New England averages just under 300 yards passing per game and Miami allows 233 yards per game through the air. The Dolphins have some accomplished pass rushers but they were relatively silent in the first meeting. RB Laurence Maroney has been running well of late and has been a late-season runner over the last few years. If he can get 4+ yards-a-carry, the Dolphins will have to respect the run and won't be able to overplay the pass.

The Dolphins offense misses RB Ronnie Brown (IR) especially in this matchup. The Patriots have had all kinds of trouble defending the Wildcat formation but the passing element is gone when RB Ricky Williams is under center. Look for rookie QB Pat White to operate out the formation several times as he is both a viable threat as a runner and passer. The Patriots know a large part of their success in winning this contest will be in how they defend the Wildcat. QB Chad Henne is coming off of a poor game (3 picks) and is still a game manager at this point. Miami lacks difference makers at wideout but New England has to be aware of WR Ted Ginn's deep speed.

The Patriots can virtually wrap up the division with a win here and we expect them to get it. We think their offense will be able to move the ball on the ground and through the air and convert more red zone trips into TDs instead of FGs, something they didn't do in the first meeting. White is an 'X' factor on offense but we feel the Patriots can keep him in check and not surrender big plays. New England is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 visits to divisional opponents and Miami is 0-9-1 ATS following back-to-back road games. Also, the Patriots know how to bounce back from bad losses (just ask the Jets).

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