NFL Record: Best Bets 9-8-1, Regular Picks 22-21-1 (Updated Feb7)

Most weeks we provide our NFL best bet of the week and an additional two to three picks that we believe offer some betting value. Last season our top play crushed the book with an incredible 15 point spread covers from 21 selections. Good for a 71.4 winning percent. While it will be difficult to improve on that record, we'll do our best to help our readers in their quest of a profitable football handicapping season.

Indianapolis trailed the New York Jets 17-6 in the 2nd quarter two weeks ago before exploding for 24-straight points to win 30-17. New Orleans used five TOs and some truly horrendous calls by the officials to gain a 31-28 OT victory over Minnesota.

There is no secret to what the Colts will do on offense: throw the ball. QB Peyton Manning leads an offense that is averaging 29 points-per-game in their last six games (that they were trying to win) and most of their damage is done through the air. They ranked 2nd in passing in the NFL this season and 32nd in rushing. The Saints ranked 25th in defense this year but 2nd in the league with 39 takeaways. They were pushed around all game by the Vikings last week but forced five TOs and that was a huge factor in their win. New Orleans has faced two top-notch QBs in the playoffs already in Kurt Warner and Brett Favre and was victorious both times. Look for Def. Co. Gregg Williams to use many different blitz packages as no QB in the league is better at pre-snap reads than Manning. CB Jabari Greer is an underrated cover corner and he'll probably draw WR Reggie Wayne. He will play physical with Wayne but can also flip his hips and run with him. Wayne is one of the most precise route runners in the league and will be a challenge for Greer. Young wideouts Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie teamed up for big numbers last week (18-274-2) and both have earned the trust of Manning. The Saints will have to be physical with them. SS Roman Harper will draw the assignment on TE Dallas Clark and this matchup will go a long way in determining how Indy moves the ball. Clark is Manning's go-to-guy when they need 5-10 yards and he is basically another wideout. A big key for the Saints' secondary will be the presence of FS Darren Sharper. The consummate center fielder, Sharper tied for the NFL lead with nine interceptions. Manning will have to be aware of him at all times. Indy allowed only 10 sacks this season so it is imperative for the Saints to pressure Manning like they did Favre last week (18 hits). The Colts pay lip service to the run but RBs Joseph Addai and Donald Brown are capable backs. Both are good receivers. MLB Jonathan Vilma is the leader of the defense but he figures to be used more in coverage than his usual run-stuffing role.

The Saints' offense is much more balanced than the Colts as they ranked 6th in rushing, 4th in passing and 1st overall. Their O-line is a physical bunch and look for them to run a lot to the right behind All Pro's RG Jahri Evans and RT Jon Stinchcomb. New Orleans can use RBs Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell to pound the inside of the defense and RB Reggie Bush can test the outside. RB Lydell Hamilton is the short-yardage back and is very successful in that role. The Colts have one of the fastest front sevens in the league but also one of the smallest. They will wear down if constantly exposed to the run and that will be the game plan of New Orleans: keep the game close and use the run to wear down the defense. QB Drew Brees completed 70.6% of his passes, good for 1st in the NFL this season and doesn't make mistakes. He didn't look as sharp last week against Minnesota but still tossed three TDs. Indianapolis uses the Cover 2 scheme most of the time and try to limit big plays. They had some breakdowns early in the Jets game but recovered nicely. Brees has the patience to take what the defense gives him but will still take his chances downfield with the likes of WRs Devery Henderson and Robert Meacham. WR Marques Colston is the Saints' top receiver and he is especially dangerous in the red zone. The Colts have two top edge rushers in DEs Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney (23 combined sacks) but Freeney is gimpy right now. It has been reported that he has a ligament tear in his ankle and he didn't practice last week. His status is up in the air and his absence would greatly affect the pass rush. Indy doesn't blitz very much and a large portion of their sacks come from Freeney and Mathis. TE Jeremy Shockey has been hobbled by a knee injury and wasn't a factor in the Vikings game but he will play this week. Backup TE David Thomas is a capable backup and the Saints will not hesitate to use him in the passing game.

New Orleans has a big edge in the return game as PR Bush and KR Courtney Roby are both capable of breaking long returns. Indy has a huge advantage in experience at kicker as Matt Stover is a 20-year veteran while the Saints' Garrett Hartley has attempted barely more than 20 kicks. He was unflappable however, in the OT nailing a 40-yarder right down the middle. Both teams have rookie punters but the Colts' Pat McAfee has a bigger leg than Thomas Morstead. These two teams ranked 31st (IND) and 29th (NO) in kickoff coverage this season but New Orleans also ranked 32nd in defending punt returns. Neither team covers kicks well and that could lead to some big returns, especially for the Saints.

Indianapolis had the good fortune to play several teams with below-average passing attacks this season but don't have that luxury this week. New Orleans is multi-dimensional on offense and is equally comfortable grinding it out on the ground or throwing downfield. The Colts have the most cerebral QB in the business but the absence of a ground game could cause problems. New Orleans will pressure Manning and look for DE Will Smith (13 sacks) to be a factor. Both teams will score points but we feel the emotional edge goes to the Saints and we like the number they are getting in what could be a close contest.

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