Each week during our publishing season, Greg focuses on the NFL with his articles. Winning systems, handicapping "how-to", entertaining anecdotes and above all winning picks can be found in Greg's columns. This past season was Greg's third year in a row of hitting over 60% winners in his Winner's Edge published picks. Here is a sample of one of Greg's columns from the NFL playoffs.
Last weekend when the Eagles and Buccaneers met, each team knew they would be playing in a Wild Card contest this weekend in Philadelphia. I’m sitting in my office watching this as I write my column. This game reminds me of the NFL pre-season. Some call this coaching display, or lack there of, the “vanilla” offense/defense, I call it sandbagging. Each team rested key players; if you bothered to watch you got to see “He Hate Me,’ remember the XFL Football League? Rod Smart, is now a Philadelphia Eagle, his new NFL nickname is “Heat.” I like that nickname better as he is very capable of keeping the bench warm.
The other game between the Raiders and Jets wasn’t predetermined. They will play in a Wild Card rematch back in Oakland. Since this is written before the Monday night game, I’m assuming that the Ravens defeated the Vikings straight up on Monday night.
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| GREG DEMPSON |
| Greg Dempson has been involved in the sports gaming industry since 1971. A serious student and player with a long history of sucess, Greg has now made his plays available to the public. He was one of a few contestants in the famous Las Vegas Hilton Super Book Contest to hit over 60% winners, in 1998. You can speak directly to Greg at 1-877-717-7577 (toll free) or via email at
gdsports@shaw.ca
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Last season this same scenario applied to the Rams and Saints. This occurred once in the 1970’s and once in the 1980’s. In the decade of the 1990’s it happened five times. From a point-spread perspective the home team is 3 – 4 – 1 ATS. The over however is 6 – 2 ATS. That one push between Buffalo and Houston was the game that cost Houston’s defensive coordinator his job. Houston was up by 32 points; and Kelly wasn’t playing. Frank Reich rallied the Bills and they came all the way from behind, and got my greatest push ever in gambling. That was also the largest come-from-behind victory in the history of the NFL including the regular season and playoffs. Who was the coach that got fired? It was an ex CFL head coach. Does anybody recall the name Jim Eddy? He once coached the Saskatchewan Roughriders.
My Wife & theEveryedge Posting Forum.
Because of the holiday schedule all the Winner’s Edge contributors had a two-week break. When my wife caught wind of this; she strongly recommended I drive her to the various post Christmas sales. In Canada they are referred to as Boxing Week Sales. Years ago retailers had a Boxing Day sale. That worked so well they decided to make it a weekly event. For those of you who live in America, Boxing Day is the day after Christmas. It’s a national holiday in Canada. We Canadian’s are very good at getting an extra day off. The wife wasn’t able to enlist my services as her personal chauffeur because I had all the College Bowl games to attend to. That shopping spree by my better half probably saved me a parlay or two, as the wife likes to play the occasional parlay card at my expense. What am I thinking! I’ll end up paying the Visa bill. She still wins.
Anyway, I mentioned the “Losers Bowl” system was live the last week of the regular season. That “heads up” was posted in the Everyedge posting forum. That system also worked last year when the Bills traveled to Seattle in week 17. If you saved the back issues of Winner’s Edge, the Loser Bowl is on page 7 in issue # 146. There were two plays last weekend. One of the plays had a different system that was in conflict with the loser bowl system. That game was between the Cardinals and Redskins. The other underdog in the system was the Bengals. I didn’t play either Arizona or Cincinnati and of course they both covered. The record of said system is now an impressive 23 - 5 ATS since 1990.
Winner’s Edge Column Record.
I closed the regular season with a 15 – 10 ATS record going exactly 60% ATS. The last two picks were with the Titans plus the points Vs. . the Raiders, an outright winner. The other selection was on the Cowboys who did everything but cover. They had the ball for about 37 minutes and out gained the Cards, but it just doesn’t matter if you don’t go to the window and cash your ticket.
Winner’s Edge Workbook.
Well, after getting off to a horrible start the over/under selections went a modest 14 – 11 ATS. That brings the Winner’s edge Workbook’s record to 38 – 16 ATS or 70% for the past two seasons. The workbook is on newsstands across Canada and in select areas of the U. S. in early June and these selections were made shortly after the schedule was announced; needless to say I am proud of this record!
Did You Know…
Did you know that in the history of the NFL, 17 teams have won 14 or more regular season games. Of those 17 teams, 11 have played in the Super Bowl. How many won the big game? I’m glad you asked; the answer is 8. Will the Rams get to New Orleans? And if they make it, can they win? Weather won’t be a factor as they play every game in a dome.
Futures Bets.
Before the season started I placed a $ 500.00 wager on the Bills to win less than 8½ games.
I also bet two futures wagers on Super Bowl appearances. My $ 50.00 wager on the Falcons to win the Super Bowl cost me $ 50.00. My other wager was a 25 – 1 bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers which will return $ 2,500.00 if the Steelers can make it to the big dance and win. If they play in the Super Bowl, I’ll most likely hedge that bet. There’s no such thing as a bad profit!
The Wild Card Round of the Playoffs.
So the Titans did make the playoffs! That’s right, only it’s the former New York Titans. The last time the Jets won in Oakland was back in 1962 and they were known as the New York Titans. The Titans/Jets won 28 – 17 back in ‘62, and they were a road favorite! The Raiders have lost three straight match-ups and will probably by laying about 4½ in this contest. Raider fans should know that no NFL team has ever lost 4 out of their last 6 games to close a season and won the Super Bowl.
Wild Card Playoff Selection.
Green Bay Packers – 3½, home Vs. San Francisco 49ers.
Okay, so the Packers have never lost a home playoff game. Winner’s Edge Jeff Tuttle stated that very factor to me on Sunday night. I dug out the point-spread record from 1960 so see how they fared ATS at home in the playoffs.
1961 they covered Vs. . the Giants, 37 – 0.
1963 they covered Vs. the Browns, 43 – 20.
1965 they won but didn’t cover Vs. the Colts, 13 – 10 (in overtime.)
1965 they covered Vs. the Browns, 23 – 12.
1967 they covered as a home dog Vs. the Rams, 28 – 7.
1967 they won but didn’t cover Vs. the Cowboys, 21 – 17.
1982 they won and covered Vs. the St. Louis Cardinals, 41 – 16.
1994 they won or pushed Vs. the Lions 16 – 12.
1995 they won and covered Vs. the Falcons
1996 Packers won and covered Vs. the 49ers.
1996 they won and covered Vs. the Panthers.
1997 they won but pushed Vs. the Buccaneers.
There is quite a gap between home games from 1967 until 1995. The Packers made a few appearances in the playoffs between the 1967 and 1995 home playoff games, but they were road contests. After Green Bay’s back-to-back Super Bowl victories in 1967 and 1968,there were some very lean years.
One of the best home field advantages is playing at home in the playoffs at Lambeau Field. As you can see from the list above they have won every home playoff game by at least 3 points. They also had an easier time with warm weather teams. They posted more convincing victories Vs. the 49ers, Buccaneers, Panthers, and Falcons as well as winning a 4 point game Vs. the Cowboys. I would never make a play on the above trends. When I looked at the common foes and the general overall play of each team, I am going to play ON the Packers. The number is 3½ points but I’m not going to lay 3½ points, I will buy the hook and lay 3 points and play against the 49ers. Play ON Green Bay – 3.
www.gregdempson.com
Check out my web site for additional pertinent information on the weekends Wild Card games. I’ll also have some information in this Friday’s Hot Sheet. Always remember the lines are sharp in the playoff so make sure and bet with your head, not over it!
In review.
Play on the Green Bay Packers and buy a half-point and take Green Bay at– 3. As always, good luck with all your selections this weekend.
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