New England defeated San Diego 21-12 in the AFC Championship game while New York needed OT to dispose of Green Bay, 23-20.

New England's offense didn't face much resistance in their 38-35 win in Week 17 vs. New York. While WR Randy Moss has been held to one catch in each of the two Patriots' postseason games, he topped 100 yards and scored twice vs. the Giants. He'll be bumped at the line by CBs Sam Madison and Corey Webster but they'll have safety help over the top. This will leave the other receivers locked up in man-to-man and QB Tom Brady has shown he'll take whatever receiver is open; he doesn't force the issue deep. He tossed three interceptions vs. the Chargers but some of that was just good defense by a Chargers team that led the NFL in interceptions. WR Wes Welker figures to be covered by rookie CB Aaron Ross and that could be a mismatch. WRs Donte' Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney and TE Benjamin Watson could also have matchup advantages. New York will mix in a few zone schemes but that isn't their strength. New York led the league with 53 sacks and the vast majority came from their D-line. They don't blitz often and need the line to get pressure quickly. The Patriots ranked 5th in sacks-per-pass attempt and Brady generally has had time to find receivers, LT Matt Light has struggled in the latter stages of the season and needs to keep DE Osi Umenyiora clear of Brady. RB Kevin Faulk is a great blocker and pass protector and also the best receiver out of the backfield. He'll have opportunities to make plays in this game and rarely blows an assignment.

The Patriots' running game has also come alive lately as RB Laurence Maroney has topped 100 yards in four of the last five games, including both playoff wins. New York's run defense has been good this season and they should do well with just their front seven. They can't afford to play a safety in the box due to New England's passing attack.

Over the last five weeks, New York's offense has become the dual threat that the coaches wanted. The running game remains strong with the bruising RB Brandon Jacobs and the quick RB Ahmad Bradshaw. New England ranked 10th in run defense this season but 26th in yards-per-carry. NY wants to run the ball and won't abandon it if it struggles early. The Patriots have great starting LBs but they have no depth and age factors in late in games. New England must control the run because the Giants will keep pounding it if they are getting positive yardage. This is not an elite O-line and they face a D-line full of 1st-round picks. Controlling DE Richard Seymour, both vs. the run and pass, is paramount if New York is to have success. NT Vince Wilfork uses his bulk to collapse the pocket and occupy blockers, giving the ILBs access to the ballcarrier.

The Giants renaissance on offense has been fueled by QB Eli Manning. He has an 8-1 TD/INT ratio over the last four games (3 road playoff wins and the finale vs. NE). He has matured before our eyes and played very well in the playoffs. What he'll face here is a myriad of different blitz packages that will require quick decisions. He has been up to the task in the playoffs but this is a Bill Belichick defense and he's going to see some things he hasn't seen before. SS Rodney Harrison has played close to the line in the playoffs and has blitzed off the edge frequently. Manning will have to identify him and make the necessary adjustments. With Manning's rise as a QB, WRs Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer have benefited and have exchanged big plays. The Patriots secondary benefits from the pass rush but lack the size to stop these tall receivers (6'5" and 6'3"). The middle of the secondary has been soft and this is where Manning will look to attack. TE Jeremy Shockey is out but rookie TE Kevin Boss has been able to make some big plays in every game. Rookie WR Steve Smith missed most of the season due to injury but has become a factor in the postseason. He has the shake-and-bake moves that the veterans lack.

New England is 18-0 and poised to go 19-0. Their offense faltered a bit (for them) when the weather turned cold but that won't be a factor this week. They have a determination to go undefeated and make everyone forget "Spygate". The Giants have been real road warriors and have won their last 10 games away from Giants Stadium. This isn't technically a road game for them as there is no home team, but they have played some great football away from home. They need their D-line to pressure Brady into quicker throws and for the CBs to stay with a dynamic group of receivers. They also need Manning to continue his stellar play. We think there is too much that NY needs to go right for them to win and that Brady will dissect them with his accuracy and patience. We also feel the Pats' running game is going to hurt the Giants, especially when they move 274-lb DE Justin Tuck inside to spark the pass rush. New England is only 2-7 ATS in their last nine games but we feel the warmer weather will make them the dangerous unit they were in the first half when they were 9-0 ATS. You have to respect what the Giants have done but we don't think the slipper will fit in the big game.

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