Visit us throughout the season for against the spread NCAA football picks each week during the regular season from our staff handicappers and guest professional cappers.
Season ATS Record: Overall 26-18-1 :: Best Bets 6-3-1 Regular Season 23-17-1 :: Bowls 3-1 (Updated end of season)
Bowl Picks
Citrus Bowl
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Point Spread: South Carolina -3
Total:45.5
Two teams that play decent defense and two teams that tend to struggle versus solid defensive clubs.
Take the UNDER 45.5
Outback Bowl
Michigan State vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Point Spread: Georgia -3
Total:49.5
Here’s a key stat on the Spartans. Michigan State passed for 571 yards in their two games versus the Badgers who finished off the regular season ranked No.2 in the country in passing defense (155 yards per game).
Take the Michigan Spartans +3 at Bodog.
Poinsettia Bowl
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. TCU Horned Frogs (BEST BET)
Point Spread: TCU -10
Total: 55.5
Against the Spread Pick with Analysis
Belk Bowl
Louisville Cardinals vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack
Point Spread: North Carolina -3
Total: 44.5
Against the Spread Pick with Analysis
College Football Picks – Week 14
Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers (BEST BET)
Point Spread: Wisconsin -9.5
Total: 55
Against the Spread Pick with Analysis
Connecticut Huskies at Cincinnati Bearcats
Point Spread: Cincinnati -9
Total: 47
Cincinnati has struggled since losing starting QB Zach Collaros to injury during their game against West Virginia. His replacement Munchie Legaux hasn’t been the answer completing only 49.4 percent of his passes. The Bearcats broke off their 2 game losing streak (3 games ATS) in their latest but that came versus the fading Syracuse Orange who have now lost 4 straight games. This week they take on a hungry Huskies team needing the win to become bowl eligible. Connecticut has played well in spots this season, but they appear to be over matched against teams with strong passing offenses. We don’t believe that Cincinnati possesses a quality passing offense with Legaux behind center and the stats back that up with the Bearcats passing for 214 or fewer yards per game in their last 4.
Take the Connecticut Huskies +9.
Georgia Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers
Point Spread: LSU -13
Total: 46
You’d be hard pressed to find anyone that would argue that the Tigers defense isn’t one of the top two in the FBS, but many bettors may not realize how strong the Bulldogs defense has been this year. Georgia ranks No. 10 (17.8 PPG) in the country in scoring defense and has played especially well since Week 2 allowing only one opponent to score more than 20 points and holding 7 of their last to opponents to fewer than 300 offensive yards. The Bulldogs are not only good defensively, they are certainly not offensively challenged scoring 34 points per game to rank 25th in the country. Another key stat to note is that LSU has faced only two teams with defenses ranked in the top 20 and they scored a total of 28 points for a meager 14 point per game average.
Take the Georgia Bulldogs +13
College Football Picks – Week 13
Houston Cougars at Tulsa Hurricanes
Point Spread: Houston -3
Total: 76.5
The Cougars are 11-0 and the Hurricane are 8-3, but not much separates these two teams. Tulsa’s schedule was much more demanding with games against the Oklahoma, Oklahoma and Boise State. We believe that if you switched schedules Houston would most likely be the 8-3 team.
Take Tulsa Golden Hurricane +3.5 at Bodog.
Toledo Rockets at Ball State Cardinals
Point Spread: Toledo -14.5
Total: 71
We’re not going to debate which team is superior as Toldeo is solid on both sides of the ball. However, the Cardinals are very solid at home winning 4 of their 5 games. Additionally, they’re playing very well as of late winning 3 of their last 5 which included 4 road games. The linesmaker has been generous weighting the road team by more than two touchdowns.
Take the Ball State Cardinals +14.5 at 5Dimes.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Connecticut Huskies
Point Spread: Rutgers -4
Total: 40.5
Neither one of these teams would ever be considered offensive juggernauts which this sets up as perfect college football angle play. We have the better running team getting points versus an offensively challenged opponent.
Take the Connecticut Huskies +4
Michigan State Spartans at Northwestern Wildcats
Point Spread: Michigan State -6
Total: 53
Michigan State’s offensive has exploded in recent weeks as their rebuilt offensive line has obviously now gelled. They should definitely not have any problem putting up some big numbers against the Wildcats porous defense that has allowed 26.9 points per game this season. However, we just can’t see the Spartans being motivated. They have wrapped up their division and have the Big Ten championship game on deck and may not want to keep their starters in all game. Northwestern on the other hand is playing well winning their last 4 games and while already bowl eligible that doesn’t secure a bowl berth which would be the case with a win on Saturday. We could make a case for taking the Wildcats even if this game meant something to the Spartans, but with the motivation factors clearly being in Northwestern’s favor make this a solid play for us.
Take the Northwestern Wildcats +6
Illinois Fighting Illini at Minnesota Gophers
Point Spread: Illinois -11
Total: 43
The Illini have lost 5 straight games and are 2-5 in the Big 10 this season with a 3 point win over Northwestern and a 21 point margin over the hapless Hoosiers. The Gophers on the other hand are improving with 371 yards or greater in 3 of their last 4 games. During that stretch they beat Iowa, gave Michigan State all they could handle and were better than the score indicates against Northwestern. It wouldn’t come as a shock to us to see the Gophers win this and getting double digit points makes this a must play for us.
Take the Minnesota Gophers +11
College Football Picks – Week 12
Cincinnati Bearcats at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (BEST BET)
Point Spread: Cincinnati -3
Total: 47
Against the Spread Pick with Analysis
Minnesota Gophers at Northwestern Wildcats
Point Spread: Northwestern -16
Total: 58
Gopher QB MarQueis Gray is apparently 100% after suffering a back injury in Minnesota’s game against Michigan State. He was limited last week against Wisconsin and was mostly ineffective. A healthy Gray will cause the Wildcats porous defense fits. Minnesota has covered 5 of the last 6 in this series.
Take Minnesota +16.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes
Point Spread: Ohio State -6.5
Total: 37.5
The Nittany Lions are ranked No. 3 in FBS in scoring defense allowing 12.9 points per game. They have two losses on the season, losing to the Cornhuskers by 3 and to Alabama by 16. Penn State has held 8 of its 10 opponents to 18 points or less. This week they face the one dimensional Buckeyes who have not exceeded 132 yards passing in their last 5 games. While we’re not calling for an outright win by Penn State, we do think that this game will be decided by less than a touchdown.
Take Penn State +7 at Bodog
College Football Picks – Week 11
Louisiana State Bulldogs at Mississippi Rebels
Point Spread: Bulldogs -2
Total: 50.5
Game Analysis and Against the Spread Pick
Michigan State Spartans at Iowa Hawkeyes
Pont Spread: Michigan State -3
Total: 47
The key to this game will be the rushing attack. Iowa’s run defense has been adequate at best this season allowing opponents to rush for 159.6 yards a game on 3.8 yards per carry. Thankfully, that’s not Michigan State’s strength. The Spartans have averaged semi-respectable 130.3 yards a game overall, but the number plummets to 67 yards on the road. Michigan State has had to resort to passing the ball more on enemy fields, but that’s not likely to be successful against the Hawkeyes who have kept their last 3 opponents to fewer than 200 yards passing per game. Iowa has owned the series since 2000 covering the spread in 8 of the last 9.
Take the Iowa Hawkeyes +3
East Carolina Pirates at UTEP Miners
Pont Spread: UTEP-4
Total: 58
Both of these teams come into the game at 4-5 and neither team has what could be deemed a quality win with both teams feasting on the FBS weaklings. However, there are a few things that separate these two teams. The Pirates’ have played a significantly stronger schedule with non-conference games versus South Carolina, Virginia Tech and North Carolina and Navy while the Miners have played New Mexico State, South Florida, Colorado State and non FBS school Stony Brook. East Carolina also has fared better in conference play with a 3-2 straight up record versus UTEP’s 1-4. The Pirates have allowed more points, but that can be easily attributed to the difference in scheduling and no doubt have the better defense with a big edge in pass defense.
Take the East Carolina Pirates +4.
North Texas Mean Green at Troy Trojans
Pont Spread: Troy -8
Total: 52.5
The Trojans domination of the Sun Belt appears to be a thing of the past. Troy is currently 1-3 in conference play and has been outscored 127 to 85. Their only Sun Belt win was certainly not dominating, beating Middle Tennessee State by 3. North Texas on the other hand has been reasonably competitive in conference games with a 2-3 record. QB Derek Thompson appears to be gaining more confidence each game and he was outstanding in their 38-21 upset win over ULM. The Trojans two wins in 2011 have been by a combined 4 points, they’re on a 4 game losing streak and bettors are being asked to lay more than a touchdown. Huh?
Take the North Texas Mean Green +8
College Football Picks – Week 10
Minnesota at Michigan State
The Spartans were in a tough spot last week playing a rested and highly motivated team on the road. So, we expect them to rebound in a big way today. Michigan State has held 6 of up its 8 opponents to 14 or fewer points this season and we believe they’ll continue that trend this week facing a Gopher team that ranks 112th in scoring offense.
Take the Under 46.5
Louisville at West Virginia
Sure the Mountaineers are capable of putting a high number of points on the board, but the Cardinals have played great defense all season not allowing an opponent more than 25 points. Louisville offense is another story. The Cardinals have failed to score greater than 17 points in 5 of their 8 games.
Take the Under 52
Stanford at Oregon State
The home team has won and covered the last 4 in this series and while we don’t think that the Beavers will end the Cardinal win streak, we do think that they’ll be competitive. Stanford had an emotional triple overtime victory over USC last week and has a key PAC 12 battle with Oregon on deck, so we’re not certain to get a Cardinal “A” game here.
Take Oregon State +21 at Bodog
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
The Panthers are one banged up unit on offense. Their top running back R. Graham is now out for the season and starting WR C. Saddler will miss this game and possibly the rest of the year. Even before the injuries we had the Bearcats as the superior team and they also get the scheduling advantage having two weeks to prepare for Pitt.
Take Cincinnati -2.5
College Football Picks – Week 9
Stanford Cardinal at USC Trojans (BEST BET)
Game Analysis and Against the Spread Pick
Michigan State Spartans at Nebraska Cornhuskers
A big advantage for the Spartans on defense should keep them close throughout.
Take Michigan State +3.5
Washington State Cougars at Oregon Ducks
Sure the Ducks pummeled the wounded Buffaloes last week, but the Cougars should have enough offense to stay within this bloated line.
Take Washington State +34.5
Buffalo Bulls at Miami (Ohio)
The Bulls’ defensive weakness is their run stop unit which is something the Redhawks will not be able to exploit.
Take Buffalo +4.5
College Football Picks – Week 8
North Carolina Tar Heels at Clemson Tigers (BEST BET)
Game Analysis and Against the Spread Pick
Cincinnati Bearcats at South Florida Bulls
The Bulls are on a downward trend losing back to back games against two teams that we don’t feel are as talented as the Bearcats.
Take the Bearcats +3
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Missouri Tigers
The Tigers did not embarrass themselves in road losses against Oklahoma, Kansas State and Arizona State and have yet to lose at home this season. Missouri is getting healthier and don’t be surprised if they pull off the straight up win.
Take the Tigers +7
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Utah State Aggies
The Bulldogs have had three heart breaking loses to quality opponents in 2011. They lost by two to Southern Miss, by 1 to Houston and by 6 in overtime to Mississippi State. The Aggies definitely are not in that class level.. This is another game where we certainly wouldn’t be surprised by a straight victory by the underdog who’s defense we feel is very underrated.
Take the Bulldogs +6.5
College Football Picks – Week 7
Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans (BEST BET)
Game Analysis and Against the Spread Pick
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Longhorns (BEST BET)
Game Analysis and Against the Spread Pick
College Football Picks – Week 6
Boston College at Clemson Tigers (Regular Selection)
Game Analysis and Against the Spread Pick
Arizona State at Utah
Point Spread: Arizona State -3.5
Total Line: 48.5
The Sun Devils certainly didn’t look dominating in their home win over the struggling Beavers and this week bettors are asked to lay 4 points on the road in Utah? Arizona State will be missing both their starting left tackle Evan Finkenberg and center Garth Gerhart so we don’t expect the line to have much success in the run game or versus the Utes under rated pass rush. Look for Utah to get their running game back on track with the return of standout tackle Tony Bergstrom who missed last week’s game.
Take the Utes +4 at Bodog
Washington State at UCLA
Point Spread: Bruins -3.5
Total Line: 61
The Bruins banged up secondary will have their hands full with the Cougars’ pass first offense. Washington State has registered 300+ yards in all of their games this season and should have little difficulty continuing that trend. If they can do an adequate job of defending UCLA’s run game they can win this game outright.
Take the Cougars +3.5
College Football Picks – Week 5
Clemson Tigers at Virginia Tech Hokies (BEST BET)
Game Analysis and Point Spread Pick
Western Michigan at Connecticut
Point Spread: Connecticut -3
Total Line: 44
The Huskies offense is too pedestrian to keep up with the Broncos who managed 306 yards through the air versus the stout Illini D.
Take Western Michigan +3
Nebraska at Wisconsin
Point Spread: Badgers -10
Total Line: 55.5
Admittedly the Cornhuskers defense hasn’t been up to par in 2011, but their offense has been solid rushing for 272 yards per game. The Badgers haven’t faced a quality opponent this season and this young team will have to prove themselves before laying double digits against a top level opponent.
Take Nebraska +10
College Football Picks – Week 4
Florida State Seminoles at Clemson Tigers (BEST BET)
Game Analysis and Point Spread Pick
UCLA Bruins at Oregon State Beavers
Point Spread: Oregon State -4.5
Total Line: 52
Neither team puts a scare into defenses when healthy and both teams are dealing with injuries to offensive starters. The Beavers are missing their starting guard and their top running back. The Bruins will be without their starting left tackle and are going with a new QB.
Take the Under 52
Temple Owls at Maryland Terrapins
Point Spread: Maryland -9
Total Line: 52.5
With showers likely in the forecast the running game may be the key here. Temple did struggle running the ball last week against Penn State, but they did run the ball well in their first two admittedly against weaker competition. Our sources tell us that the Owls will be giving the very mobile C. Stewart his first start of the season in Maryland, so we expect Temple’s ground game to show an improvement over last week’s numbers. The Terrapins run D has played adequately at best allowing 172 yards to the Hurricanes who were only one dimensional with their starting QB suspended for the game. Last week they allowed only 92 yards on the ground, but the Mountaineers offense is primarily a passing attack, so we can’t use that game as a barometer of any improvement on their run defense.
Take the Owls +9 at Bodog
College Football Picks – Week 3
Oklahoma Sooners at Florida State Seminoles (BEST BET)
Game Analysis and Point Spread Pick
West Virginia Mountaineers at Maryland Terrapins
Point Spread: Maryland -1
Total Line: 58
Sure the Terrapins gained 499 yards in their 32-24 victory over the Hurricanes in their home opener, but that total should come with an asterisk beside it. The Hurricanes were missing 3 key starters from their defense in linebacker Sean Spence, defensive tackle Marcus Forston and defensive end Adewale Ojomo due to suspensions and were going with untried players on the corners. Maryland now has suspension issues themselves with 2 of their 3 top receivers being suspended indefinitely for an off field incident. The key to beating the Mountaineers is the passing game and with Quintin McCree and Ronnie Tyler not available the Terrapins won’t have the weapons to exploit West Virginia’s weakness.
Take West Virginia +1 at Pinnacle
Auburn Tigers at Clemson Tigers
Take the Clemson Tigers -3.5.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Miami Hurricanes
Take the Hurricanes -2.5
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