Arizona Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -7

Game Betting Analysis

Arizona enters this game having won three playoff games so far, all as the underdog. They have really stepped up their play after several lackluster performances after they clinched the NFC West title. Pittsburgh has played two playoff games at home and relied on their offense in their first win and their defense in the second.

The Cardinals ranked 4th in offense this season and 2nd in passing. QB Kurt Warner had a great season and has continued his brilliant play in the postseason (8-2 TD/INT ratio). He has a quick release which helps him vs. the blitz, something he is sure to see a lot in this contest. Steelers Def. Co. Dick LeBeau will mix up his looks and Warner is going to have to quickly decipher where the extra rushers are coming from. Look for Pittsburgh to alternate between blitzes and max coverage and they'll try not to let Warner get comfortable with what is coming next. OLBs LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison have been monsters this season (27 ½ combined sacks in regular season) and they'll give the O-line fits. RB Edgerrin James is one of the best pass blocking backs in the league and look for him to keep more than one play alive with a good block. WR Larry Fitzgerald has already totaled 419 yards through the air in the playoffs (an NFL record) and the Steelers will certainly key on him. However, WR Anquan Boldin is healthy now and like Fitzgerald, very tough to bring down when he has the ball. SS Troy Polamalu is a great safety and Pittsburgh needs him to be a big factor vs. the pass. Their corners don't have the ability to stay with these wideouts for long and that's not even including WR Steve Breaston, another 1,000+yard wideout. When Pittsburgh blitzes, they need Polamalu to quickly identify where the help is needed or it could be a long day for the secondary. Arizona ran the ball only 340 times this season as opposed to 658 pass plays. The playoffs have seen a different Cardinals offense as they have run the ball 100 times to 95 passes. James has really helped the offense with his fresh legs and Arizona is running the ball enough that defenses just can't wait on the pass. James and RB Tim Hightower have combined for 335 yards, two TDs and a 3.9 yards-per-carry average. Pittsburgh ranked No.2 vs. the rush and don't expect the Cards to run wild.

Pittsburgh's offense has been diversified under the stewardship of Off. Co. Bruce Arians but they are still a run-first unit. RB Willie Parker has been injured for most of the season but like James, has fresh legs for the playoffs. He ran very well vs. the Chargers but was consistently stuffed by the Ravens. The Cardinals ranked 16th in run defense during the regular season but have handled the running attacks of the Falcons, Panthers and Eagles. Philly doesn't run much but Atlanta and Carolina ranked 2nd and 3rd respectively in 2008. The Steelers don't have the mauling O-line of past teams and the Cardinals will look to stop them up the middle first and force Parker outside. Arizona was guilty of overpursuing during the year but has done a great job of maintaining gap discipline in the playoffs. QB Ben Roethlisberger has played well in the postseason and doesn't appear to be suffering any ill affects from the concussion he incurred in the last regular season game. He has taken a beating behind a below-average pass-blocking line all year and the Cardinals will look to hit him at every opportunity. Arizona generally goes with a 4-3 front but mix in 3-4 fronts as well. Their improved pass rush has helped a secondary that struggled earlier in the year. The Cardinals have forced 12 turnovers in the playoffs and the pass defense improved markedly when rookie CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was inserted into the starting lineup. WR Hines Ward will play despite a knee injury but won't be 100%. WR Santonio Holmes has the deep speed to give this defense trouble, especially against CB Rod Hood. Look for him to be a more frequent target with Ward limping. The Cards made Philadelphia TE Brent Celek look very good (10-83-2) and TE Heath Miller is definitely a few steps up from Celek. Look for Miller to be another frequent target.

In terms of personnel, the Steelers are the better team. They generally play disciplined on both sides of the ball but rely too much on their defense. Arizona has caught fire in the playoffs and their defense has been excellent at forcing turnovers. Warner has played in two Super Bowls and won't get rattled by a defense that made Baltimore QB Joe Flacco look like the rookie he is two weeks ago. We think the converted TD is too much to give an offense that has topped 30+ points in all of their playoff games.

GAME PICK: Take the Cardinals **Best Bet**
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