San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -6

Game Betting Analysis

The Chargers needed overtime to put away the Colts last week, 23-17. The Steelers enjoyed a 1st-round bye last weekend. In the Week 11 matchup, Pittsburgh dominated in yardage but needed a late FG to eke out an 11-10 win.

San Diego knows they have to muster some semblance of a running game to have a chance this week. RB Darren Sproles ran for 105 yards and two TDs against the Colts but faces a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed only two 100-yard rushers in the past three seasons. RB LaDainian Tomlinson (groin) is not expected to play so Sproles will be backed up by former Pro Bowler Michael Bennett. Both backs have good speed but aren't pounders in the middle. The Steelers ranked 2nd in run defense this season after leading in that category for much of the season. QB Philip Rivers led the NFL in passer rating but had his worst rating of the year (44.4) in the first matchup. He has a good group of receivers but must overcome the No.1 pass defense in the league and be aware of OLBs James Harrison (16 sacks, 7 forced fumbles) and LaMarr Woodley (11 ½ sacks). TE Antonio Gates had a big game last weekend despite battling an ankle injury and Sproles is a big weapon on checkdowns and screens.

Pittsburgh's running game ranked an uncharacteristic 23rd this season and now faces a defense that totally shut down Indy's ground game last week. RB Willie Parker has battled injuries all year but is healthier now than he has been for most of 2008. San Diego will look to stop the ground game first with their front seven and then tee off on QB Ben Roethlisberger when he drops back. The Steelers ranked 29th in sack. Pct. allowed this year and Roethlisberger suffered a concussion on a sack against Cleveland in the season finale. The Chargers defense has become more aggressive since Ron Rivera was promoted to Def. Co. and faces an O-line that has been shaky all season. WR Hines Ward had 11 catches for 124 yards in the first meeting and the defense can't allow that to happen again.

Pittsburgh had a 300-yard passer, 100-yard rusher and 100-yard receiver in the first meeting but didn't score a TD. This will be Roethlisberger's first action since suffering the concussion and he knows he'll face pressure. Rivers will face even more heat and must make better decisions than he did in the first game. The Chargers have an edge in special teams and Sproles is a dangerous returner. These teams have met in the playoffs twice before, in Pittsburgh both times, and the Chargers emerged victorious on each occasion. While San Diego may not win this game, we think their offense and defense (and special teams) can do enough to keep the game close. Seven of their eight losses were by seven points or less and look for a very close gam

GAME PICK: Take the Chargers **Best Bet**
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