As I begin this column, the final Sunday of the 2003 NFL regular season is winding down. It was an exciting season, and I am sad that it has already finished. The biggest surprise of the past football year was probably the demise of Kurt Warner and the Rams. Odds-makers had established the Rams as pre-season favorites to win the Super Bowl, and projected them to get 11.5 wins. Instead, St. Louis never contended, and will finish with either six or seven wins, depending on how they fare vs. the 49'ers on Monday night. Other than the Rams, most teams did pretty much what they were expected to do.
All four division winners in the NFC, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Green Bay, and San Francisco were all projected to get at least 9.5 wins on the season, and expected to contend for the playoffs. In the AFC the Steelers, Raiders, Titans and Jets won their respective divisions. All of them were also projected by odds-makers to have winning seasons. Back in Week 5, who would have thought that the 1-4 Jets, minus Vinny Testeverdae, would eventually win the competitive AFC East ? The four wild-card teams Colts, Browns, Giants, and Falcons all overachieved slightly, and are thrilled to be in the post-season. Excluding the Rams, some of the other notable playoff absentees include the Broncos, Dolphins, Patriots, Saints and the Bears. The Jets and Giants will both be in the playoffs together for the first time since 1986. Both teams enter the playoffs peaking at the right time and have football fans in New York buzzing.
Emmitt Smith breaking Walter Payton's rushing record, Steve Spurrier's coaching debut in the NFL, and the emergence of young stars like Rickey Williams, Michael Vick and Chad Pennington were just a few of the many exciting stories of 2003.
From a gambling stand-point, it was quite a successful NFL season for me. With the Bills win over the Bengals, I cashed three of my four future wagers here. The pre-season started off relatively slowly at 14-12. After a somewhat disappointing 3-3 score in Week 17, my final regular season record stands at 64-40 (61.5%) as documented by the Sports Monitor. The other company that monitors my picks, Bigguy, has me at 62-40-2, as they graded a couple of games 'pushes' instead of wins. Either way, I'm pleased to have hit over 60%, as my five year mark, entering the season was 57%, which is exactly what I hit in 2001. Looking back at the season, I attribute an increase in the amount of over/under plays, that I played, as a major reason for my improvement. In the past, I had always done well with NFL totals, but wagered on a lot more sides. This year, almost half of my plays were made on totals. Despite the high scoring trend around the league, I was able to do well with the 'under' and ended up at 32-15 for all my totals combined.
I am a very stubborn person. I am always open to new ideas, but if I have an opinion about something (and I usually do), it takes a lot for me to change my mind. In my sports-betting career, this stubbornness can sometimes lead to problems. In almost every sport, in almost every season, there will be at least one team that continues to cost me money week after week, and that becomes my nemesis. This year it was the Bengals. I foolishly refused to believe that they were as bad as they seemed, and they cost me numerous times over the season. Take away my losses on Cincinnati, and I would have hit roughly 65%. I have promised myself not to allow this to happen next year. We'll see.
Interestingly, the first two NFC playoff games are exactly the same matchups as two games from Week 1. The 49'ers and Giants kicked the NFL season off in thrilling fashion back on Thursday, September 5. In that game, Jose Cortez kicked a 36 yard field goal with just six seconds left, to give SF a 16-13 road victory. The 49'ers were a 3 or 3.5 point road favorite in that game, depending on when and where one played. Once again they have been listed as 3.5 point favorites. This time they will be playing in San Francisco, where the Giants have not played well, going just 2-8 since 1981. Every game lately has been a playoff game for the Giants, who were written off for dead a month ago. They responded in true Fassell-like fashion, by winning their final four games, including last week's overtime winner over the Eagles. The 49'ers haven't had to play with the same urgency, as they won the weak NFC West weeks ago. It may be tough for them to match the Giant's intensity in this game. San Fran has gone just 2-5-1 against the spread at home this year. Their last five wins have all been decided by a touchdown or less. I expect this one to come down to the wire once again. I played on the Giants at +3.5 back in Week 1, and I will take them again here.
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| Ben Burns |
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Ben Burns is a professional handicapper who specializes in
football and hockey. For the past 5 years Ben’s picks have been
documented by the Bigguy Sports Monitor. At Bigguy, he
currently is ranked #1 All Time in both the NFL and in the NHL.
Ben can be reached at his website:
http://www.benburnsconsulting.com
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